Ethiopia Forest Sector Review

Ethiopia Forest Sector Review

Focus on commercial forestry and industrialization (Technical Report)

This Forest Sector Review – the first comprehensive analysis in 20 years – broadly aims to provide
an update on the status of the forest sector in Ethiopia, and specifically to inform the Government’s
next Growth and Transformation Plan (GTP2) about the most promising forest and forest industry investment opportunities. This Review focuses on the current and future supply and demand of industrial and small-scale timber production, a strategic component of Ethiopia’s transformation towards a more prosperous and industrialized economy. The Government of Ethiopia, specifically the newly created Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change (MEFCC), called for this Forest Sector Review with the objective to improve understanding of the contribution made by Ethiopia’s forests and trees in landscapes to sector industrialization, growth and employment. The Review also aims to assist the Government to achieve the Climate-Resilient Green Economy (CRGE) goals, given that investments in forests and accompanying industries support achievement of climate mitigation and rural development goals.

Ethiopia’s diverse forest resources, including high forests, woodlands, and trees on farms, provide
goods and services of important value to Ethiopia’s people, environment and economy. For example, non-timber forest products (NTFPs) play an important role in rural livelihoods and the growing market-based economy. The main commercial NTFPs in Ethiopia are honey, spices, forest coffee, bamboo, gums and resins. There is stable demand on domestic and international markets for many of these products, providing foreign currency earnings. Ethiopia’s forests also are important for climate stabilization, contributing to global climate mitigation goals and providing local climate adaptation benefits. In addition, forests are increasingly recognized for their role in mitigating and adapting to global climate change. Land use related activities (agriculture, forestry) are the main source of emissions in Ethiopia. Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation, forest conservation, sustainable forest management and forest carbon stock enhancement through afforestation and reforestation (REDD+) is an important element in Ethiopia’s CRGE strategy and must be integrated into a comprehensive sector strategy to ensure these forest goods and services are maintained.

Taking into consideration the multitude of products and benefits Ethiopia’s forests provide, the Review focuses on supply, demand and the value of the forestry sector – focusing on timber – as it contributes to economic growth. This aligns with the Government strategic priorities for the GTP2, which are economic development through industrialization, private sector development and commercialization. This Review aims to support growth and transformation by encouraging large and small domestic and foreign investment in forest establishment, sustainable forest management and forestry industry. Experience in eastern and southern Africa demonstrates that there are promising models of forest-based partnerships between communities, smallholders and enterprise to meet economic development goals and create sustainable livelihoods. Thus, this Review’s focus is on forest industrialization and does not include a detailed analysis of the broad range of forest benefits, such as ecosystem services related to forests, which include watershed protection, land rehabilitation, food security, ecotourism, and biodiversity conservation.

In 2013, Ethiopia consumed roughly 124 million cubic meters of wood and is consuming more each year. With population growth and economic development projections, total wood product demand will increase by about 27% over the next 20 years, reaching an annual consumption of 158 million cubic meters by 2033. Wood fuel (fuel wood and charcoal) will continue to be the main forest product consumed. However, with rural electrification and urban development, the relative share of fuel wood demand is expected to decrease (see Figure 1 below). The increasing demand is mainly explained by growing needs for industrial round wood, driven by the expanding construction industry and consumer demands of the growing middle class.

forest roundwood and fuelwood

Construction (housing and commercial building) is expected to experience steady growth over
the coming years in line with urbanization, and the forestry sector must supply this increasing demand
with higher quality wood products to meet the requirements of modern construction. Other important
drivers of the increasing demand include wood products for furniture, especially for urban households and commercial consumption, as well as utility poles for electrification and pulp and paper.

As shown in Figure 1, woodfuel, which is critical for household heating and cooking, is the most important forest product consumed in Ethiopia. Ethiopia now consumes over 100 million cubic meters of woodfuel each year, with roughly a third of consumption from unsustainable use of forests and woodlands. Current management of the woodfuel situation urgently needs to be improved so that it does not undermine the investments in environmental and social transformation (including food security) at the core of the Government’s rural development program. Demand and supply side measures will be needed, including electrification and introduction of efficient stoves. The woodfuel supply interventions are not prioritized in this Review for the following reasons: industrial and urban users are the main consumers with the means to pay for sustainably produced woodfuel and they will be the first switching to cleaner or more convenient alternatives; the value adding potential for woodfuel production is relatively small; and there is limited evidence that the private industrial sector is interested in investing in woodfuel production since most markets operate informally with limited benefits for industrial investors. Thus, this Review focuses mainly on the investments required to close the industrial roundwood gap, demonstrated by the “unspecified sources” supply category below.

To meet the needs of Ethiopia’s growing economy, a supply gap of 4.4 million cubic meters industrial roundwood will need to be closed over the next 20 years, as demonstrated by the 2033 “unspecified sources”. This challenge provides a considerable investment opportunity, as Ethiopia can close this gap through plantation establishment, sustainable management of forest resources and expansion of the forestry sector’s industry base. Smallholder woodlots are currently the main source of roundwood – mainly poles – and these are expected to continue toupply an important amount of roundwood. There is significant value adding potential for wood products produced from woodlots, as much of the wood produced from woodlots does not enter the domestic industry. This presents foregone opportunities for downstream processing, including through small and medium forest enterprises, to supply the growing construction and furniture demand. Timber can also be sourced sustainably from natural forests, given safeguards are in place to prevent unsustainable practices. For example, participatory forest management (PFM) arrangements with forest communities could also contribute to closing the projected gap, if capacity is developed and policies are aligned and effectively implemented. Over one million ha are currently under PFM agreements, but the majority is not currently under sustainable forest management. Sustainable forest management could contribute around 2 million m³.

For detail reading, download the attachment below.




National context of the Forest Sector in Ethiopia

National context of the Forest Sector in Ethiopia

History of Forest Management in Ethiopia: Evolution of governance and Institutions under three administrative regimes

  • Pre- Derge regime
  • During the Derge Regime
  • Forestry at the present

Pre- Derge regime

Modern type of sectoral polices had no long stories. Historical records show that Italians issued various forest laws and regulations but not implemented. Tree planting has long history. Afforestation started in the early 1400s by the order of King Zara- Yakob (1434-1468). Perhaps the first tree planting was conducted at Menagesha Suba Park. Juniperus seedlings brought from Wofwasha.

The first comprehensive and modern forest legislative is enacted during Emperor Haile Selassie I in 1965. It was mainly focused at determining the forest ownership rights. It recognized state, private (the ruling group) and protected forest types. Regulations were issued regarding forest management, protection and utilization of state forests, private forests, protection forests, establishment of community forests and also some rules to regulate forest products processing and manufacturing enterprises.

There were only little attempt to plantation. An extensive deforestation took place all large forests under state ownership, and put severe restrictions to the public on the use and management of forests.

During the Derge Regime

In 1980, Derge proclaimed a new law called forest and wildlife conservation and development proclamation. Forest and Wildlife Conservation Authority    (FAWCDA) was recognized as the strongest forestry institution in the history of the country. By the forest ownership were recognized by state, peasant associations and urban dwellers associations

The area covered by planted trees increased from 42,300 ha in 1973 to 250,000 ha in 1985 within 10 years. Significant increase in the number of staff (10 folds) as well as the budget (7 folds) allocated for the forest sector. Natural forests were used as spring boards for plantations and expanded at the expense of peasant holdings.

Derge applied mass mobilization and forced labor campaigns to rehabilitate degraded lands. The program of mass resettlement and villagization following the 1984/5 famine.

Perhaps as much as 60% of the conservation assets created during the military dictatorship may have been destroyed during the transition.

Forestry at the present

Proclamation was issued by the transitional government “forest conservation, development and utilization” proclamation no. 94/1994. In 2007, the council of ministers adopted a forest policy. The objective was:

  • To conserve and develop forest resources properly so that there could be sustainable supply of forest products to the society and contribute to the development of the national economy.

The forest Development Conservation and Utilization proclamation number 542/ 2007 is the latest forest law. The proclamation recognizes two types of forest ownerships i.e state and private.

Challenges with 542/2007

  • Lacks regulation and directives
  • Unable to enforce the policy as expected
  • Emerging issues

Now the forest law is revised with major stakeholders at regional and federal level.

The Climate Resilient Green Economy (CRGE) of Ethiopia. The CRGE recognizes that Ethiopian forests are threatened. The CRGE document predicts 9 million ha deforestation and huge rise in fuelwood consumption between 2010-2030. The strategy aims at reversing land degradation, protecting existing forests and increasing forest cover.

 

3 million ha of eucalyptus at age 5 gives 116 mill m3  and 4 million ha gives 142 mill m3

Utility pole consumption projection 2033

The imported wood is three fold of the export wood which is 3.12 billion Birr in 2012.

Non-timber products of Ethiopia

Non-timber forest products (NTFPs) play an important role in Ethiopian rural livelihoods. Several NTFPs have stable international markets. The main commercial NTFPs in Ethiopia are honey, spices, forest coffee, bamboo, gums and resins.

Gum and Resin resources

Product Estimated area (ha) Estimated annual production (ton)
Gum Olibanum 2.284.000 (80%) 57
Gum Arabic 400(14%) 4.996
Gum commiphora 171(6%) 8.565
Total 2.855.000 70.661

Ethiopia has Gum and resin potential of 70,500 tons. Average export 3584 tons 0.54-0.73 % export revenue – 1% of world 28% of Africa.

Major challenges in Gum and resin sector

Several gum resin bearing species are endangered. Competing interest for the land use

  • Unsustainable management
  • Human induced fire
  • Illegal trading
  • Less success in value addition

It is crucial to ensure sustainable utilization of the resource and optimal land use.

Bamboo

Earlier estimates report 1 million ha (85% is lowland bamboo). Bamboo covers 67% in Africa and 7% in the world. Naturally grow in six regional states.

Recent estimates deforestation rate of bamboo 52% (Semeneh Bessie, et al., 2015), MEFCC and FAO, 2015- 519,124.65.

Challenges of bamboo sector

  • Inadequate Knowledge on the management
  • Deforestation and lack of sustainable management
  • Inadequately linked to industry and manufacturing

 

Challenges of the Forest sector

  • Less engagement of the private sector
  • Institutional Instability weak coordination
    • Loss of memory and poor database
    • Loss of attention and support
    • Absence of regional institutional alignment
  • Absence of land use-
    • horizontal expansion of agriculture and
    • free grazing
  • Limited success in forest industry (market calls for the production!)

In conclusion,

  • Forests crucial roles to sustainable economic development should be enhanced
  • Modern forestry has to be in place
    • Demarcated Forest Land is imperative!!
    • The strategic roles to other sectors (Water, energy, food production etc ) should be recognized
  • Structural alignment to the lowest administration level is essential to capitalize on mass mobilization
  • The capacity of the ministry in mobilizing resources should be strengthened
  • Productive human resource with positive attitude has to be ensured

Source: Presentation document (Presented for Parliamentarians of FDRE Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change, Yigremachew Seyoum (PhD), Hawassa, January 2016)




Ethiopia Forest fast-track implementation

Ethiopia, Forest fast-track implementation: Ethiopia’s action plan to create a green economy

One of the four initiatives that have been selected for fast-track implementation is Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD). The government is using significant resources to build and implement its green economy, but to capture the full potential of the plan; it welcomes the partnership with bilateral and multilateral development partners as well as contributions by the private sector.

Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD)

Deforestation and forest degradation account for one third of total emissions today. However, the forestry sector also offers huge abatement potential through reduced deforestation and forest degradation. In addition, it holds large potential for sequestration – which is underlined by the fact that already today Ethiopia has one of the largest afforestation and reforestation programmes in the world.

REDD+ offers the opportunity to implement forestry abatement levers and monetise the respective abatement potential in a structured way. Hence, we have already prepared a Readiness Preparation Proposal (R-PP) that lays out its plan to prepare for REDD+ implementation. This R-PP has been accepted and we are now ready for its REDD+ preparation. The preparation phase will include the setup of an organisational structure, the definition of a REDD+ strategy, as well as the preparation for implementation of concrete mitigation actions within REDD+.

The development of the REDD+ strategy builds on the existing experience and structures developed locally, and will enable a broader learning experience for all affected stakeholders. It will target to leverage the assessments of the main initiatives to mitigate deforestation and forest degradation, to identify implementing options, and to define the key enablers required at regulatory and institutional level.

The mitigation levers identified based on the work carried out by the CRGE initiative focus on addressing the main two drivers of deforestation and degradation (conversion to agricultural land and unsustainable fuelwood consumption), through a combination of proposed measures to increase agricultural yields, manage soils and forests better, and adopt alternative energy sources and energy efficient cooking technologies (Table). Particularly for the latter initiative, REDD+ will strongly interact with initiative 2 (rural energy).

Table: REDD+ – Identified levers for GHG mitigation

Macro levers Levers Description
Reduce pressure from agriculture on forests Agriculture intensification on

existing land

Decrease requirements for new agricultural land by increasing yield and value of crops
Prepare new land for agriculture through medium and large-scale irrigation Shift of new agricultural land from forest to degraded land brought into production due

to irrigation and use of natural fertilizer

Prepare new land for

agriculture through small-scale irrigation

Shift of new agricultural land from forest to degraded land brought into production due

to irrigation and use of natural fertilizer

Reduce demand for fuelwood Fuelwood efficient stoves Reduce wood requirements thanks to efficient stoves (mostly in rural areas)
Electric stoves Switch to electric stoves (in urban areas mostly)
LPG stoves Switch to LPG stoves
Biogas stoves Switch to biogas stoves (in rural areas)
Increase sequestration Afforestation and reforestation Large-scale afforestation and reforestation of degraded areas
Forest management Large-scale forest management programmes

Based on the previous work conducted in the field and the assessment of the mitigation levers, a series of REDD+ pilots will be identified. This could range from Participatory Forest Management and Conservation approaches, which support strengthened local user rights and sustainable forest management, to various initiatives designed to take pressure off the forest resources; including better management of previous plantations, and support for bamboo growth and use as well as intensified agro-forestry. All pilots will be assessed at the end of the R-PP implementation according to various criteria, including effectiveness, efficiency, and social justice. The better-performing strategies will be selected for scale up. Other key activities of this work are the development of a REDD+ learning network and a REDD+ good-governance project that supports the development of good governance around REDD+ pilots. Main changes in the regulatory environment to enable the proposed mitigation mechanisms to be implemented should, according to the consultations made in the preparation phase, focus on local people’s rights, develop a dedicated forestry institution, and better coordinate land-use planning. Taken together, REDD+ and the associated activities are intended to help capture the mitigation potential from forestry that has been estimated to be up to 130 Mt CO2e in 2030. The REDD+ initiative will help not only to put an institutional structure in place that supports the implementation of abatement levers in forestry, but also to finance these levers, e.g., by monetising abatement potential and putting in place the necessary prerequisites such as a reference scenario and an MRV (monitoring, review, and verification) system.

The Forestry sector is a significant contributor of GHG emissions, but it also offers a high abatement potential that even surpasses the estimated increase in emissions by 2030.

Source: CRGE, November 2011




Ethiopia Forest Sector GHG Emissions

Ethiopia, Forest Sector GHG Emissions

GHG emissions baseline in 2010 and BAU up to 2030

Emissions from the Forestry sector are mainly caused by human beings, and are driven by deforestation for agriculture and forest degradation from fuelwood consumption and logging. Under the BAU (Business as usual) scenario, emissions from forestry will increase from 53 Mt CO2e in 2010 to 88 Mt CO2e in 2030.

Figure 1: Forestry – Level of GHG emissions will be increasing by more than 50% up to 2030 under a business-as-usual scenario

Main drivers of GHG emissions

The main drivers of GHG emissions as well as their assumed impacts are mainly the increase in cropland and the increase in the cutting of fuelwood to meet the needs of a growing population, as detailed below (Figure 2).

  • Deforestation for agricultural land. Deforestation rates in Ethiopia historically correlate with the expansion of agricultural land. Based on STC calculations for soil-based emissions, total cropland is projected to gradually reach 27 million hectares by 2030, with an annual BAU growth rate of 3.9% between 2010 and 2030. This is the land expansion needed for the crop growth target of 9.5% p.a. in the GTP, which is essential to ensure food security and poverty alleviation in the face of demographic pressure. This 3.9% p.a. growth rate in agricultural land will be necessary to reach the 9.5% target, assuming that Ethiopia makes no significant progress in increasing crop yield and the value of yield beyond historically observed rates of improvement. As a consequence, the annual amount of land taken from forests for agriculture will need to increase gradually over the next 20 years, which will lead to a higher deforestation rate and more CO2 Without any additional intervention, this agricultural expansion will affect the high woodland more than in the past, while the high forests will be less affected. However, it has been assumed that the proportion of new land for agriculture that is taken from forests will decrease from 70% to 55% (of the total new land for agriculture) in 2030, also as a result of current government policies, which are assumed to continue under the BAU scenario. As its main input sources, the Forestry STC used the GTP, the WBISPP report, and CSA cropland data as well as IPCC guidelines and benchmarks.

Figure: Forestry – Estimation of changes with time of the main emission drivers

  • Degradation from fuelwood consumption. Ethiopia’s rural energy needs are predominately satisfied by biomass (>90%). This includes traditional energy sources such as fuelwood, charcoal, and branches, leaves, and twigs. The development of fuelwood consumption is primarily influenced by population increase, unless a significant change in the energy mix takes place. The main sources used for projections were the WBISPP report (on current levels of degradation due to fuelwood consumption) and CSA population forecasts used for projecting future fuelwood demand.
  • Authorized and unauthorized logging is currently a relatively minor driver of forest degradation. The STC used the 2010 FAO report that estimates the total amount of industrial logging (authorized) as well as the research work by Demel Teketay from 2002 that details unauthorized as compared with authorized logging volumes. To project the BAU development, the STC assumes that logging will increase on average at the same rate as population growth (2.6 % per year), reflecting the increasing demographic pressure on forest resources and experiences made in other developing economies.

GHG emissions baseline and BAU projection for 2030

The increase of emissions to 88 Mt CO2e in 2030 (see Figure 37) will mainly be driven by deforestation for agricultural use and degradation from fuelwood consumption.

  • Deforestation for agricultural land. Due to a growing need for agricultural land fuelled by demographic pressure and development needs as described above, the deforestation rate will progressively increase from around 280,000 hectares in 2010 to around 550,000 hectares in 2030. Emissions will go up from 26 Mt CO2e in 2010 to 44 Mt CO2e in 2030.
  • Degradation from fuelwood consumption. In line with population growth, the total amount of woody biomass degradation is projected to increase from around 14 million tonnes in 2010 to 23 million tonnes in 2030. This will lead to a rise in GHG emissions from 24 Mt CO2e to 41 Mt CO2e in 2030.
  • Formal and informal logging has been projected to undergo a similar growth (i.e., following the needs of a growing population), increasing GHG emissions from around 2 Mt CO2e in 2010 to 3.5 Mt CO2e in 2030.

Source: CRGE, November 2011




Forest Abatement levers

Forest Abatement levers: Potential and Cost curve

Thanks to levers such as afforestation and reforestation, the Forestry sector boasts an abatement potential even higher than the projected increase in emissions under the BAU scenario. In total, nine levers have been identified with an abatement potential of up to 131 Mt CO2e (Figure 37). These levers are clustered into three groups:

  • Reduced deforestation. This includes lowering the pressure that the need for agricultural land exerts on existing forests. These levers range from agricultural intensification and preparation of new land by means of small-scale irrigation to medium- and large-scale irrigation schemes. In total, they account for an abatement potential of nearly 38 Mt CO2 Since these levers are mainly related to agricultural practices, a more detailed discussion can be found in the chapter on Soil in this appendix.
  • Reduced forest degradation. This focuses mainly on reducing the demand for fuelwood through dissemination of a wide range of efficient cooking and baking technologies. With a total abatement potential of around 50 Mt CO2e, this is the largest set of levers identified across all sectors.
  • Increased sequestration: This contains mainly large- and small-scale afforestation/ reforestation/area closures and forest management of woodlands and forests. Covering an area of 7 million ha in total (by 2030), this set of levers promises an abatement potential of 42 Mt CO2 Today, several projects to increase the forest cover by afforestation or reforestation are already ongoing. In addition to afforestation/reforestation, sustainable agro-forestry and protected-area management can provide additional levers to increase sequestration.

Figure: Forestry – Abatement and sequestration potential reaches 131 Mt CO2e per year in 2030

 

Figure: Forestry – Most of the abatement potential has a cost below 5 USD/t CO2e, more than half of it has a negative abatement cost

The cost curve depicted in Figure 38 shows a wide range of abatement costs, which extend across both the negative and the positive areas.

  • Most of the levers aiming at reducing forest degradation and reducing deforestation by shifting into more efficient stove technologies and intensified, i.e., higher-yield, agriculture have a negative societal cost: The benefits (e.g., reduced costs for purchasing or collecting fuelwood) surpass the cost of implementing and operating these technologies.
  • All levers aiming at increasing sequestration have a positive cost. For some levers, the costs are exceptionally high due to the investments needed for setting them up. The total investment cost for all levers adds up to about USD 10 billion by 2030. This includes the initiatives to curtail deforestation, i.e., agricultural intensification and irrigation (which are discussed in more detail in the chapter on Soil-based emissions) that require the major part of this investment at over USD 6 billion.

Climate finance can play an important contributing role if the abatement potential is appropriately monetized, e.g., in a REDD+ arrangement.

Levers reducing deforestation

Since these levers are mainly related to agricultural practices, they are described in more detail in the Soil chapter of this appendix.

Forestry levers 1-4 – Reduced forest degradation from improved cooking/baking technologies

Fuelwood consumption is the main source of GHG emissions in Ethiopia. The wood is mainly used for residential baking and cooking purposes. As most of the households, particularly in rural areas, use highly energy-inefficient technologies (e.g., open fire or three-stone technology), the improvement potential here is huge.

The dissemination of technologies leading to a reduction in fuelwood consumption, either by making more efficient use of it or by shifting to other, less carbon intense fuels, can be a major lever for GHG abatement. The STC analysed different technologies:

  • Fuel-efficient stoves
    • Baking stoves, such as the mirt for baking injera bread
    • Cooking stoves, such as the tekikil for cooking
  • Fuel-shift stoves
    • LPG stoves (mostly for cooking)
    • Biogas stoves (mostly for cooking)
    • Electric stoves and electric mitad (both cooking and baking – in rural areas without grid access, this can also include off-grid solar-powered stoves).

The pattern of stove usage varies between regions and according to cooking/ baking traditions. One common feature, however, is that most households need both a stove for cooking (sauces, coffee, etc.) and a stove for baking (injera). This is reflected in scale-up plans.

The total abatement potential has been calculated for each stove type based on the following information:

  • Maximum scale-up. In order to reflect differences in access and cost of alternative fuels/energy sources, the team distinguished between rural and urban populations. The rates are based on a projection of GTP plans (particularly the National Energy Network sectoral GTP review plan), several expert discussions, and cross-checks with other countries that have successfully disseminated efficient stoves. For 2030, the following scale-up targets were estimated (in percentage of rural/urban households respectively):
    • Fuelwood-efficient stoves: 80% rural/5% urban (both cooking and baking)
    • LPG stoves: 0%/5%
    • Biogas stoves: 5%/1%
    • Electric stoves: 5%/61% (weighted for cooking and baking).

The distribution between the different types of stoves will be refined during the phase of work detailing the implementation plan for this initiative.

  • Efficiency improvement. This indicates the percentage of fuelwood that can be saved by employing different technologies. The calculation is based on efficiency evaluations and testing data of the Ministry of Water and Energy as well as donor organisations active in the promotion of efficient stoves (e.g., GIZ). The potential savings are as follows:
    • Fuelwood-efficient stoves: 50% (average for both cooking and baking)
    • LPG stoves: 100% (cooking only)
    • Biogas stoves: 100% (cooking only)
    • Electric stoves: 100% (cooking and baking).
  • Emissions from alternative fuels. This takes into account the GHG emissions from alternative fuels used to substitute fuelwood.
    • LPG stoves: Emission reduction of 89% due to the higher efficiency of LPG stoves (comparison of fuelwood emissions and LPG emissions based on IPCC combustion emission factors).
    • Fuelwood-efficient biogas and electric stoves: Hardly any emissions (assuming that electricity will have near zero emissions from 2015 onwards when all electricity in the grid will be from renewable sources).

Introducing efficient stoves has two distinct effects on GHG emissions. First of all, it reduces forest degradation, with an impact of around 0.9 t biomass/year per household. Secondly, woody biomass acts as carbon sink, amounting to 2.1 t/year per household (if it is not burned). The effect of reduced degradation can be counted in at 100% (resulting in an abatement potential of 1.6 t CO2e/stove/year under the assumption that reduced consumption first decreases direct degradation before it affects the carbon sink). The reduction of emissions through the carbon sink effect does, however, need to be discounted by an adjustment factor to cap the total carbon sink potential of all stoves to the maximum estimated forest regeneration potential (and the gradual realisation of this potential over time). Employing this factor yields an additional abatement potential of 0.6 – 1.4 t CO2e/stove/ year, depending on the stove type.

The total abatement potential of stoves is nearly 51 Mt CO2e in 2030. At 34.3 Mt CO2e, the scale-up of fuelwood-efficient stoves contributes the largest share of this total potential, 14.0 Mt CO2e can be achieved from electric stoves, 2.3 Mt CO2e from biogas stoves, and 0.6 Mt CO2e from LPG stoves.

The abatement cost calculation also differentiates among stove types:

  • Stove cost. Stove cost varies by model and has been calculated using average prices of different quotes from disseminating agencies (e.g., MoWE, GIZ, and World Vision). The stove cost is accounted for as a capital expenditure and amortised over the average period of usage, depending on the model as well (based on experiences in Ethiopia and other countries). Costs and period of usage were calculated as follows:
    • Fuelwood efficient stoves: USD 6 – 8; with an average durability of 5 years
    • LPG stoves: USD 107; average durability 7 years
    • Biogas stove (including digester infrastructure): USD 912; average durability of 20 years (of the expensive and more robust digester infrastructure)
    • Electric stove and electric mitad: USD 20 – 63; with an average durability of 7 years.
  • Programme cost. The team estimated the cost of the programme on a per stove basis. The calculation includes costs for product development and testing, training of manufacturers, promotion of the technology, administrative overhead, programme evaluation, and follow-up. The actual costs have been evaluated based on the experience of implementing organizations such as the Ministry of Water and Energy and GIZ and set at nearly USD 30 per stove on average. The programme costs have been accounted for as operating costs.
  • Fuel cost savings. In order to determine fuel cost savings, the team compared average fuel expenditure before and after a technology change. The savings have been accounted for as (negative) cost.

Without accounting for the potential benefits for users of more efficient stoves, the cost of implementing the stove scale-up would be positive, e.g., around 8 USD/t CO2e for fuelwood-efficient stoves. Including the benefits, however, the cost becomes negative (money-saving over their lifetime) for most stoves types, with the figures ranging from USD -21 to USD -14. The only notable exception is the abatement cost for LPG stoves, which remains positive at USD 120, due to the (currently) more expensive fuel.

The cost estimate also confirmed the maximum scale-up assumptions ex-post: the stoves that deliver the highest negative cost, i.e., net savings, were estimated to have the highest scale-up rates (e.g., fuelwood-efficient stoves) and stoves with positive cost the lowest rate of scale-up (e.g., LPG stoves).

Since efficient stoves are such a significant abatement lever, the STC conducted a detailed analysis of their potential, the implementation cost, and dissemination models. For the most important results, please refer to the summary of the detailed analysis in the concluding chapter of the main part of this report.

Forestry lever 5 – Large- and small-scale afforestation/ reforestation and area closure

Afforestation, reforestation, and area closure measures provide additional sequestration opportunities. The total abatement potential for the year 2030 comes to around 32.3 Mt CO2e, with afforestation contributing 21.5 Mt CO2e and reforestation 10.8 Mt CO2e.

The calculation of this potential is based on the following data and assumptions:

  • Afforestation/reforestation area. Based on consultations with forestry experts, existing afforestation/reforestation projects, and discussions in the STC, it was assumed that 2 million hectares of pastureland will be afforested up to 2030. At the same time, Ethiopia will reforest 1 million hectares of degraded areas.
  • Sequestration rate. The sequestration rate for both afforestation and reforestation was set at 10.75 t CO2e/ha/year, a number directly taken from the afforestation/reforestation CDM project in Humbo.

Abatement cost adds up to around 5 USD/t CO2e:

Planting material. Planting material costs 300 USD/hectare and is accounted for as CAPEX with an amortisation period of 30 years (based on GHG standard methodology for afforestation/reforestation).

  • Assumed that one nursery, costing USD 50,000, will be needed for every 5,000 hectares. Since a total of 30 nurseries will be needed, this amounts to a CAPEX investment of USD 1.5 million that will amortize over 30 years. A nursery also has operating costs of USD 10,000 per year. In addition, the team estimated USD 1 million in operating expenditures for annual research and development activities.
  • Operating cost for afforested/reforested areas. The management and care for afforested/reforested areas is – in consultation with experts – assumed to cost around 30 USD/ha/year.
  • Programme cost and additional operating expenditure. A programme cost of around 9 USD/ha/year is incurred over the first three years of afforesting/ reforesting. Other operating expenditures include monitoring costs (around 3 USD/ha/year) for all afforestation/reforestation areas, which was computed based on experiences from the Bale project.
  • Economic income effect. Sustainable forestry creates an income from timber and non-timber products, which has been estimated to be around 7 USD/ha per year (based on a possible value of 14 USD/ha/year as evaluated by forestry experts and a realisation factor of 50%).

Forestry lever 6 – Forest management

Forest management boasts an abatement potential of nearly 10 Mt CO2e in 2030, with management of forests contributing 6.5 Mt CO2e and management of woodlands 3.2 Mt CO2e. The abatement potential of these two levers was calculated in a very similar way, albeit using different assumptions on the following parameters:

  • Projected area coverage. Based on interviews with experts, experience from existing forest management projects, and discussions in the STC, the area for the management of forests and for the management of woodlands was set at 2 million hectares each.
  • Sequestration rate. Management of forests has a sequestration potential of 3.24 t CO2e/ha/year as international benchmarks indicate. Assuming that the management of woodlands has about 50% of that impact, the potential for this activity is around 1.62 t CO2e/ha/year.

These assumptions result in an abatement potential of 6.5 Mt CO2e from the management of forests and 3.2 Mt CO2e from the management of woodlands.

Abatement costs are around 1 and 2 USD/t CO2e for the management of forests and woodlands respectively:

  • Planting material. The direct cost of planting material will amount to around 30 USD/hectare. It is accounted for as CAPEX with an amortisation period of 50 years (based on standard GHG methodology for forest management).
  • Here it is assumed that one nursery, at the cost of USD 50,000, is needed for every 50,000 hectares. For a gradual scale-up, four nurseries will be needed, amounting to a CAPEX investment of USD 200,000. A nursery also incurs an operating cost of USD 10,000 per year. In addition, operating expenditures of USD 1 million were taken into account for annual research and development activities.
  • Operating cost for afforested/reforested areas. The management and care for project coverage areas cost 2 USD/ha/year.
  • Programme cost and additional operating expenditure. A programme cost of around 4 USD/ha/year is incurred over the first three years for the management of forests (50% of the cost for afforestation/reforestation) and 3 USD/ha per year for woodlands (total programme cost of 10 SD/hectare). Other operating expenditures include monitoring (1 – 2 USD/ha/year) for all areas.
  • Economic income effect. Sustainable forestry creates an income from timber and non-timber products, which has been estimated to be about 3.50 USD/ha per year (50% of benefits assumed in afforestation/reforestation).

Source: CRGE, November 2011




Abatement levers feasibility

Abatement levers – feasibility and economic impact assessment

Feasible levers with high impact

The initiatives that reduce forest degradation as well the ones that increase sequestration have comparably low implementation barriers:

  • Initiatives to reduce forest degradation. Most of the efficient cooking-stove technologies are readily available, have already been tested for applicability, and have been deployed on a large scale in Ethiopia. A number of governmental and donor organizations as well as the private sector have already been active in the dissemination of such stoves. This existing institutional infrastructure and experience, as well as the grassroots level organization of the governmental institutions involved, can prove instrumental in scaling up the production and distribution effort. There are, however, potential barriers to the adoption of some of the technologies, for cultural reasons or for costs (particularly for LPG and biogas stoves), and the production of large volumes of high-quality stoves needs to be ensured.
  • Initiatives to increase sequestration. From a technical point of view, both afforestation/reforestation and forest management are highly feasible: They do not require any complicated technologies and have already been successfully tried in Ethiopia. In fact, there are several large projects for afforestation/ reforestation (e.g., Humbo CDM) and forest management (e.g., Participatory Forest Management projects) already ongoing – making the country one of the largest afforestation/reforestation areas on the continent. Large pilot projects for REDD+ are in the preparatory stages. A continuing forest data inventory might be helpful to ensure long-term success. In general, there appear to be no cultural or social barriers to implementation.

In addition, reducing forest degradation and increasing sequestration have a neutral or even positive impact on overall economic development.

  • Reduced forest degradation. Efficient stoves increase the available income of the relatively poor rural population, create employment, and improve health and gender equality. As the only potential socio-economic disadvantage, LPG stoves may increase dependence on imports of technology and fuel.
  • Increased sequestration. Afforestation/reforestation as well as forest management levers might both lead to additional economic benefits by creating employment, income from sustainable forestry for the managing communities, a stronger link between forest industry and forest development, and eventually even increasing exports and public revenues. Additional benefits such as erosion control and other ecosystem services also speak for the implementation of these measures.

Taken together, the suggested forestry abatement levers not only appear to be without major barriers to implementation, but also seem to have strong socio-economic benefits beyond GHG abatement. The initiatives discussed should therefore not only be a prime focus of the CRGE strategy, but also amongst the first initiatives for which implementation can start quickly and achieve fast success.

Abatement levers – implementation timeline and resource requirements

Implementation timeline

On the basis of the abatement potential and feasibility assessment, the Forestry STC has selected three priority initiatives for particular attention and immediate implementation efforts. These initiatives are the scale-up of fuelwood-efficient stoves, afforestation/reforestation, and forest management (Figure 1). Significant scale-up of these initiatives is envisaged to start already at the beginning of 2012.

Figure1 : Forestry – Overview of timeline for implementation of initiatives

In addition, the scale-up programmes for other stoves will also start in the course of 2012. An exception is the programme for the scale-up of LPG stoves, which is envisaged to start only in 2013/14 in order to explore the availability of sufficient amounts of LPG within the country and thereby ideally avoid an increase of costly fuel imports. The initiatives summarized under agricultural intensification as well as large-, medium- and small-scale irrigation, that are described in more detail in the Soil chapter, also have planned starting dates in 2012. It is important to mention that these dates mark the start of the implementation, which for some initiatives is staged across several years (e.g., afforestation/ reforestation is staged across all 20 years up to 2030). The estimated project time includes some required preparatory work (e.g., development of investment plans), and is subject to approval by the respective authorities and the availability of funding. Hence, the full impact of the initiatives only occurs later in most cases.

Resource requirements

The forestry initiatives (excluding agricultural intensification and irrigation projects that are accounted for in the Soil chapter of this appendix) will require a total expenditure of nearly USD 7.9 billion in the long run (i.e., up to 2030). Out of this total amount, about USD 3.4 billion is capital expenditure and USD 4.5 billion is operating and programme expenditure. Around USD 1.2 billion of the expenditure will be necessary in the short term, i.e., up to 2015 (Figure 40). If the initiatives that reduce deforestation (agricultural intensification and irrigation) would be included in the cost estimation, the total expenditure would rise to more than USD 35 billion, USD 9 billion of which would be initial investments (up to 2015).

Figure: Forestry – Financial overview of all initiatives (not including soil initiatives)

On the other hand, since most of the initiatives, particularly the scale-up of fuel efficient and fuel-shift stoves, entail high savings for the targeted population, the savings and/or additional income is expected to overcompensate this expenditure from a societal perspective. More precisely, this means that more than USD 1.4 billion savings/additional income can be generated in the short run up to 2015 and nearly USD 16 billion of savings/additional income can be achieved by 2030.

Classifying the initiatives by their return profiles (Figure 41), the fuel-efficient and fuel-shift stove initiatives (with the exception of biogas stoves) fall into the category of expenditure that yields a positive return (from a societal perspective) after less than five years. Due to the high upfront investment cost for the biogas digesters, biogas stoves yield a positive return, but only in the longer run. Although they might increase income from forestry for rural communities, the afforestation/ reforestation as well as forest management initiatives will not yield a positive return in the long run due to high investment and operating expenditure. Hence, these initiatives need to be supported by grant or pay-for-performance schemes.

As a range of programmes is already in progress in the Forestry sector, the scale up initiatives should be able to build on a solid experience base.

Figure: Forestry – 68% of cost will have positive returns in the short or long run, but 32% will need grants or performance pay

Source: CRGE, November 2011




About Forest Sector

About Forest Sector of Ethiopia

The Forest sector was under Ministry of Agriculture before the Ministry of Environment and Forest was established by the amended proclamation 803/2013. The proclamation mandated the Ministry, inter alias, to Coordinate and ensure the forestry objectives and the basic forestry principles indicated in the forestry policy of Ethiopia.

Forest sector institutional setup

Ethiopia has a vision to achieve middle-income status by 2025 in a climate-resilient green economy. The ambition is to build a green economy. The development of a green economy will be based on four pillars.

  • • Agriculture: Improving crop and livestock production practices for higher food security and farmer income while reducing emissions
  • • Forestry: Protecting and re-establishing forests for their economic and ecosystem services, including as carbon stocks
  • • Power: Expanding electricity generation form renewable energy for domestic and regional markets
  • • Transport, industrial sectors and buildings: Leapfrogging to modern and energy efficient technologies

Major sources of emissions within forestry:

In forestry, the impact of human activities is a large source of CO2 emissions amounting to almost 55 Mt CO2e in 2010. Forestry emissions are driven by deforestation for agricultural land (50% of all forestry-related emissions) and forest degradation due to fuelwood consumption (46%) as well as formal and informal logging (4%). For more …

Main drivers for this projected development are:

  • • – Deforestation leads to CO2 emissions, and is mostly caused by the conversion of forested areas to agricultural land. Emissions are projected to grow from 25 Mt CO2e in 2010 to almost 45 Mt in 2030.
  • • – Forest degradation leads to CO2 emissions, and is primarily caused by fuelwood
    consumption and logging in excess of the natural yield of the forests, with the major driver being population growth. Emissions are projected to grow from around 25 Mt CO2e in 2010 to almost 45 Mt in 2030. For more …

Forestry: Protecting and re-establishing forests for their economic and ecosystem services, including as carbon stocks Deforestation and forest degradation must be reversed to support the continued provision of economic and ecosystem services and growth in GDP. Fuelwood accounts for more than 80% of households’ energy supply today – particularly in rural areas.

Furthermore, forests contribute an estimated 4% to GDP through the production of honey, forest coffee, and timber. They also provide significant and precious eco-system services: they protect soil and water resources by controlling the discharge of water to streams and rivers, preserve biodiversity, function as a carbon sink, clean the air to create important health benefits, and boost land fertility.

Despite their economic and environmental value, Ethiopian forests are under threat. The growing population requires more fuelwood and more agricultural production, in turn creating needs for new farmland – both of which accelerate deforestation and forest degradation. Projections indicate that unless action is taken to change the traditional development path, an area of 9 million ha might be deforested between 2010 and 2030. Over the same period, annual fuelwood consumption will rise by 65% – leading to forest degradation of more than 22 million tonnes of woody biomass.

Besides the agricultural initiatives to reduce the pressure on forests (see above), the CRGE initiative has prioritized two strategies that could help to develop sustainable forestry and reduce fuelwood demand:

  • • Reduce demand for fuelwood via the dissemination and usage of fuel-efficient stoves and/or alternative-fuel cooking and baking techniques (such as electric, LPG, or biogas stoves) leading to reduced forest degradation,
  • • Increase afforestation, reforestation, and forest management to increase carbon sequestration in forests and woodlands. These initiatives would result in an increased storage of carbon in Ethiopia’s forests, provide a basis for sustainable forestry, and even allow the forestry sector to yield negative emissions, i.e., store more carbon in growing forests than are emitted from deforestation and forest degradation.
  • • Promoting area closure via rehabilitation of degraded pastureland and farmland, leading to enhanced soil fertility and thereby ensuring additional carbon sequestration (above and below ground).

Forestry GHG abatement potential

Forestry – should receive particular attention: It contribute around 25% respectively to projected GHG emission levels under business-as-usual assumptions 50% of the total abatement potential.

Sector Abatement levers Core assumptions (2030) Gross abatement potential, Mt CO2e
Forestry Fuelwood-efficient stoves Household reach2 (million): 15.7/0.3 34.3
LPG stoves Household reach2 (million): 0/0.3 0.6
Biogas stoves Household reach2 (million): 1.0/0.1 2.3
Electric stoves and mitads Household reach2 (million): 1.0/up to 4.9 14.0
Afforestation/Reforestation Area in million ha: 2 (A) and 1 (R) 32.3
Forest Management (forest/woodland) Area in million ha: 2 (F) and 2 (W) 9.7

Forestry in 5 million ha of forest and 2 million ha of woodland alone represents around 50% of the total domestic abatement potential (or 130 Mt CO2e) and, as a sector, can even yield ‘negative emissions’ via sequestration, i.e., storage of carbon in the form of wood, at a level that surpasses emissions from deforestation and forest degradation. The single most important lever is to reduce demand for fuelwood through fuelwood efficient stoves, offering a potential of almost 35 Mt CO2e reduction, while other advanced cooking and baking technologies (electric, biogas, and LPG stoves) offer an additional combined potential of more than 15 Mt CO2e. Capturing this abatement potential requires the switch of more than 20 million households to more efficient stoves. In addition, afforestation (2 million ha), reforestation (1 million ha), and forest management (2 million ha of forests and 2 million ha of woodlands) can help to increase sequestration by more than 40 Mt CO2e and hence even surpass any remaining emissions from the forestry sector. Pressure from agriculture on forests can be reduced by agriculture intensification on existing land or unlocking degraded land thanks to irrigation, with the potential to lower deforestation and thus the associated emissions by nearly 40 Mt CO2e in 2030.

Different Projects executing on the Forest Sector

  • – Rehabilitation opportunity Mapping with WRI
  • – The UN-REDD Program
  • – Institutional Strengthening for the Forest Sector Program
  • – Biodiversity Conservation Program- GIZ and kfW
  • – Restoration with WRI
  • – Bonga Biosphere reserve
  • – Fast Track Investments in the Forest Sector
  • – Great Green Wall of the Sahel &Sahara Initiative
  • – Bamboo sector
  • – Global Green growth Initiative (GGGI)

Other New initiatives

  • • Forest Sector Growth Program- EU (all regions)
  • • Forest Sector Investment Portfolio- Norway (all regions)
  • • Support from the GCF fund (all regions)
  • • Charcoal production from Bagasse- sugar factories

In conclusion all these efforts need to be integrated at various levels for the same goal of protecting the country from the adverse effects of climate change and building a green economy and reaching the ambition of middle-income status by 2025.

The Ministry Leveraging resources from all possible sources to support achieving CRGE and GTPII targets commitment at various levels required capacity, prepare bankable documents and our absorption capacity should be strengthened to maximize the support of multilateral and bilateral partners.

  • Land use planning required
  • Strong structure required at lower levels to improve implementation

Source: CRGE, November 2011 and Report for EFDR Parlamentary member (2016 by Dr. Tefera Mengistu)




Sweden Supporting Development of Ethiopia’s Forestry Resource

Addis Ababa February 25/2017 Sweden is committed to supporting the development of Ethiopia’s forestry resource which contributes to the livelihood of communities and to mitigate climate change.

Ethiopia has been working to increase its forest coverage to 30 percent in the coming 15 years.

Forest resources are significant for the nation’s economy, environment, biodiversity and the ecosystem as well as the well being of people.

Over the past years, the country has been mobilizing the public, particularly in rural areas, through nationwide watershed management campaigns.

In an exclusive interview with ENA, Annika Nordin, Development Cooperation Section Head at Sweden Embassy, said participatory forestry is very important area that Sweden can support.

“This is the priority in our strategy we embarked on last year. It is a new strategy where we are going to find the best way to support Ethiopia”, she said.

She added that Sweden is committed to supporting the management of forestry resource which is very important in tackling climate change and building resilient green economy.

According to her, it is important to conduct research on land issues and forests to gain more knowledge and see how to combine what Sweden supports here bilaterally with all the support it renders regionally and globally.

“We are going to link the institutions of Sweden to those in Ethiopia so that they can work together on capacity building, research, and knowledge of forestry management”, Nordin elaborated.

Appreciating Ethiopia’s effort in protecting the environment, the head said “I think it is very important to always have the community with you when you do things and try to change things that are owned by people living close to forest and they can be involved in managing and protecting the forest”.

She further indicated that the programs are something they try to integrate into agriculture to bring resilience to drought and also climate change.

The programs are also trying to integrate gender issues and to see how the poorest of the poor, the landless in rural areas can work on forest protection and management.

Climate Change Implementation Coordinator Director-General at Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change, Debasu Bayleyegn said Ethiopia has been exerting maximum effort to increase forest coverage so as to reduce carbon emission.

“We have about a 15 percent of forest coverage in the country. This it has enabled us to reduce some level of carbon emission, however given the level of favorable conditions that we have, we should be able to achieve more”, he said.

In this regard, it has been undertaking research and study in collaboration with various institutions, including Mekele, Bahirdar, and Assosa universities and Ethiopian Environment and Forest Research Institute, for the successful attainment of the program.

The director-general said the country has been implementing CRGE strategy over the past five years with the core objective of eradicating poverty, reducing  carbon emission and building green economy before 2022.

In this respect, the plan is to reduce carbon emission to less than 137 million metric at the end of GTP-2.

“The country is endowed with favorable geographical location, good climate and varieties of species of trees, if we utilize this resource we will be able create a situation under which we would further utilize our forest resources”, he said.

The government of Ethiopia has initiated Climate Resilient Green Economy Program in 2011 to protect the country from adverse climate change and build green economy. Source ENA




UN to Plant 1 Mln Trees Near Ethiopian Refugee Camps

Addis Ababa February 9, 2017 A million trees are to be planted in Ethiopia to fight deforestation around camps hosting hundreds of thousands of South Sudanese refugees.

The trees would be planted on 150 hectares of land in Gambella Regional State to meet the growing refugee population’s demand for energy, the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) said.

Almost 300,000 people, mostly women and children, have found shelter in Ethiopia since conflict erupted in South Sudan in December 2013.

Fires used by the refugees for cooking are fuelled almost entirely by chopped wood, putting considerable pressure on local forests, Reuters quoted FAO energy and forestry expert Arturo Gianvenuti as saying.

The depletion of forests risks creating tensions with local communities and disrupting the ecosystem as trees stabilize the climate, regulate water flows and provide shelter to numerous animal species, it was indicated.

It also exposes refugee women to the risk of sexual abuse as they have to walk long distances in isolated areas to fetch firewood, the expert noted.

To address some of these issues, FAO plans to set up nurseries for fast-growing trees, like Leucaena and Eucalyptus, to supply refugees from four camps in Gambella with wood, he further pointed out.

According to Gianvenuti, FAO and U.N. refugee agency (UNHCR) have also agreed to monitor deforestation with high resolution satellite images and train local craftsmen to produce energy-saving clay stoves that would cut wood consumption by up to 25 percent. Source ENA